When John Calipari’s Memphis team first went undefeated in Conference-USA, you could count me among the skeptics. How could a CUSA team deserve a one-seed in the NCAA tournament? Weren’t there a bunch of 11-5 teams in the SEC and ACC that were more deserving? If you put Memphis in the Big 12, they certainly were not going to go undefeated. But over time my opinion changed. There were a number of reasons.

First, I started to watch Memphis play more often. There’s nothing like seeing a team’s athleticism on TV to change your impression. Plus, the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings actually believed in Memphis. The Tigers weren’t just winning in CUSA, they were beating teams by such an impressive margin that they looked every bit like one of the top teams in the country. And when I saw John Calipari guide that Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Joey Dorsey, etc. Memphis team to the national title game, I was fully convinced. A team could legitimately be a national title favorite even in a smaller conference. 

With Murray St. undefeated this season, you might expect me to be on the Racers' bandwagon. But something has been holding me back. Unlike some of the other impressive mid-major squads in recent years, Murray St.’s Pomeroy ranking is a pedestrian 47th.

The fact that a team could be ranked 47th and not have lost a game is actually fairly impressive. But if you look at the recently released team sheets on NCAA.com, the answer hits you square in the face. The left hand columns of the Murray St. team sheet are nearly empty. Despite the fancy zero next to Murray St.’s name, they haven’t really played anyone of any substance.

But I’m not here to tell you to disrespect a group of kids from a mid-major school who, even after their coach left this offseason, are taking the program to new heights. No, I’m here to tell you to look a little more closely. The margin-of-victory stats don’t hate Murray St. as much as you might think. The key is that Murray St.’s least impressive performances of the season happened while Ivan Aska was out with a broken right hand. (Aska returned this last weekend.) Aska is a 6’7” forward who averages 12 points and six rebounds a game and provides the key inside balance for star guards Isaiah Canaan and Donte Pool. And the numbers reflect his importance to the team. Here are Murray St.’s splits with and without Aska in the lineup:

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

Murray St. (without Aska)

107.3

100.0

6

0

0.6733

Murray St. (with Aska)

111.6

91.9

12

0

0.8798

 

 

 

 

 

 

La Salle (without Galloway)

103.1

98.8

1

2

0.6067

La Salle (with Galloway)

109.5

92.9

16

4

0.8436

With Aska in the lineup, Murray St. has played like the 25th best team in the nation. That’s not quite elite, but it also feels about right. Murray St. might not be a legitimate post-season favorite, but with an undefeated record on the season, there is no reason to believe this team is a pushover either.

Speaking of surprise mid-majors, if you woke up this morning and saw that La Salle was leading the A-10, I’ll forgive you if you don’t know much about the team. (If you want something to be excited about, La Salle is 10th in the nation in 3-point percentage.) And given the craziness of the A-10 this season, I’m not sure the Explorers can stay on top. But if La Salle can stay near the top of the A10, the NCAA committee will be made aware of one key fact. Ramon Galloway, who averages 15 PPG was missing in La Salle’s early season losses at Villanova and at Pittsburgh. While I think the NCAA committee puts less weight on injuries than I would like, Galloway is too important a piece in La Salle’s lineup to ignore the fact that he was missing in those games. And La Salle only lost by four points and seven points in those games. La Salle certainly doesn’t have enough quality wins to get a lot of respect right now, but don’t sleep on the Explorers.

Speaking of Pittsburgh, a popular story this week has been how the return of the injured Tray Woodall has saved Pitt’s season. The experts have been saying that not only does Woodall add a star point guard who can bring the offense back to life, he allows Ashton Gibbs to return to his natural position at shooting guard. And the full-season numbers confirm the story. Both early and recently, Pitt has been a much better team, and particularly a much better offensive team, with Woodall in the lineup.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

Pittsburgh (without Woodall)

106.0

98.8

5

6

0.6720

Pittsburgh (with Woodall)

120.6

102.1

9

3

0.8469

 

 

 

 

 

 

Virginia (with Sene)

106.0

83.6

15

2

0.9198

Virginia (without Sene)

106.0

92.8

3

1

0.7975

Overall, Pittsburgh has played like the 110th best team in the country with Woodall out, and the 33rd best team with Woodall in the lineup. I know there will be some who are skeptical that one player can make that big a difference. But last year’s Gopher squad showed how critical a PG can be. With Al Nolen running the show, Minnesota beat North Carolina and Purdue and looked like a strong NCAA team. But with Al Nolen injured, Blake Hoffarber had to play out of position and Minnesota won only one Big Ten game in the final eleven.

For those of you who want extra details on Pitt’s season, the team’s Pythag. rating in November (with Woodall) was 0.8642, Woodall came back too soon and played a horrible game in a loss to Notre Dame, but since his Jan 21 return Pitt’s Pythag. rating is 0.8844 and the team is 3-1. So while Pitt has been playing shockingly well lately, it isn’t necessarily out of character with the early season form.

I’m growing to love what Tony Bennett has done at Virginia this year, but they desperately need Assane Sene back. Without their shot-blocking center, Virginia’s defense has been substantially worse. This Tuesday they barely beat a Clemson team playing without Milton Jennings. Virginia has mostly been surviving, but they are not going to make a deep run in March without Sene in the lineup.

But not all player changes make a difference. Keep in mind that for the NCAA to take an injury into consideration, the player must have a large impact on the team when healthy. A player not only has to impact the team’s wins, he also must put up meaningful statistics. I have no doubt that California misses Richard Solomon. There are definitely times when the other forwards get in foul trouble when it when it would be nice to have him available. But Solomon was in and out of the lineup all season, and he never really had the kind of statistical production to impact his team. Not surprisingly, California looks almost identical with or without him in the lineup:

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

California (with Solomon)

109.9

88.0

11

2

0.9070

California (without Solomon)

110.0

88.7

6

3

0.9008

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alabama (without Steele)

105.4

85.2

10

3

0.8985

Alabama (with Steele)

108.5

88.2

4

4

0.8935 

Similarly Andrew Steele has provided some nice scoring at the guard position for Alabama, and shown a propensity for getting to the line. But Alabama’s defense has been slightly worse since Steele debuted, and he hasn’t had the impact on the team that some people had hoped.