Remember the summer of 2016 when the cap spiked and some very questionable contracts were signed? If so, you might shudder when you read that history seems poised to repeat itself in the summer of 2019. The NBA’s salary cap is projected to jump from just under $102 million for the 18-19 season to $109 million for the 19-20 season. This means multiple teams will be flush with cap space in July of 2019.

A jump of $7 million itself is pretty big, but that alone won’t cause the cap space to grow around the NBA by such big margins. Several of those questionable (read: bad) contracts are now coming off the books. Combine the jump and expiring money and you have a situation where nearly half the league projects to have cap space, and several have space for at least one max free agent.

Right at the top of the projections are a couple of surprising Western Conference teams: the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks. Dallas is largely built around young (read: cheap) contracts, while the Clippers have a host of expiring deals coming off their books. Both are in the mix for playoff spots this season and both will be in the mix to add talent this summer. The Clippers in particular will get meetings with many of the top free agents, with Kawhi Leonard known to be their main target.

The team everyone will have an eye on is that other team in Los Angeles: the Lakers. When the Lakers missed out on adding a second max player via free agency or trade after signing LeBron James last summer, they pivoted to one-year contracts with the rest of their 2018 cap space. That has the Lakers positioned to find that second max guy this summer. They’ve been a rumored destination for free agents Leonard and Kevin Durant, as well as an oft-mentioned trade partner to acquire Anthony Davis. 

Across the country, both Big Apple teams are poised to make splashes, as the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks are set up to bring in a max free agent. Even after signing Spencer Dinwiddie to a contract extension, the Nets will have somewhere between $20 million and $48 million in cap space, depending on how they handle restricted free agents D’Angelo Russell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The Knicks have wiped the books about as clean as they can and are looking to put the hard sell on Durant in free agency. It might cost them an asset or two to move another contract to get the necessary space, but that’s a sacrifice New York will gladly make to be relevant again.

Around those big market clubs, there is the usual group of rebuilding teams like the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns. Those teams will either look to push their rebuilds forward, or they’ll be prime bidders to eat bad money from other teams in exchange for assets in the form of draft picks and young players.

And then there is a larger-than-normal group of already good teams who will hit the summer with a lot of flexibility. In the Eastern Conference this includes the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers. All three are upper echelon teams that have star players locked in, young talent and the ability to add pieces around them.

Out west, keep an eye on the Utah Jazz and the surprising Sacramento Kings, as they’re in similar positions to those three East teams. While neither Utah nor Sacramento is a prime free agent destination, they can use their space to be active in adding pieces via trade, or to overpay second-tier free agents by a little bit to bring them in.

Every four to five years, the NBA goes through a major reset in the offseason. With the cap spiking again, and nearly half the league positioned to have cap space, the summer of 2019 feels like it will be the start of a season of change across the league.

A few notes on the projections in the tables:

  • The NBA’s most recent cap projection of $109 million is used.
  • Rookie Scale, Minimum Scale and Exceptions all bump up accordingly by the percentage of the cap increase.
  • Projections are made on which options will be picked up (both player and team), and which partial/non-guaranteed players will be waived or kept.
  • No extension projections are made.
  • Draft Pick Cap Holds are based on projected end-of-season records as of 12/21/18
  • Starting Cap Space = the amount of space each team will have without renouncing or waiving any players/picks. Projected 2019 draft picks not included.
  • Maximum Cap Space = the amount of space each team could have if they waived or renounced all players/picks who are not fully guaranteed.
  • Projected Cap Space = the amount of space each team is projected to have after roster decisions are made.

 

Team

Starting
 Cap Space

Maximum
 Cap Space

Projected
 Cap Space

Atlanta

 $     (10,055,673)

 $      69,171,760

 $      37,513,772

Boston

 $     (60,086,891)

 $      38,850,344

 $     (69,117,100)

Brooklyn

 $     (46,451,139)

 $      71,256,604

 $      48,936,398

Charlotte

 $     (58,092,696)

 $      53,482,115

 $     (40,091,896)

Chicago

 $     (16,720,691)

 $      51,606,941

 $      39,510,938

Cleveland

 $     (41,019,999)

 $       (1,252,006)

 $     (37,948,999)

Dallas

 $     (35,430,584)

 $      86,653,300

 $      51,319,102

Denver

 $     (36,361,661)

 $      17,880,106

 $     (36,361,661)

Detroit

 $     (40,037,376)

 $       (3,019,616)

 $     (42,393,966)

Golden State

 $     (65,547,142)

 $      20,532,884

 $     (67,499,662)

Houston

 $     (49,560,318)

 $     (29,026,094)

 $     (41,724,618)

Indiana

 $     (30,628,508)

 $      45,694,748

 $      44,209,666

LA Clippers

 $     (35,261,330)

 $      56,583,695

 $      53,939,871

LA Lakers

 $     (12,199,608)

 $      38,703,415

 $      36,908,013

Memphis

 $     (41,258,309)

 $      26,857,205

 $     (30,675,471)

Miami

 $     (69,133,436)

 $      36,179,024

 $     (50,207,826)

Milwaukee

 $     (36,438,565)

 $      41,572,331

 $      21,520,362

Minnesota

 $     (57,839,642)

 $      14,114,290

 $     (55,975,442)

New Orleans

 $     (25,793,117)

 $      26,823,755

 $      23,652,023

New York

 $     (23,676,041)

 $      54,582,925

 $      29,556,457

Oklahoma City

 $     (58,526,182)

 $     (32,422,152)

 $     (53,012,877)

Orlando

 $     (33,157,782)

 $      29,426,349

 $         (863,551)

Philadelphia

 $     (28,905,694)

 $      51,500,922

 $      20,431,049

Phoenix

 $         (510,710)

 $      27,193,476

 $      21,943,308

Portland

 $     (35,652,284)

 $     (18,488,781)

 $     (38,237,084)

Sacramento

 $       (7,279,828)

 $      59,914,786

 $      45,999,957

San Antonio

 $     (26,970,475)

 $        7,311,109

 $     (32,946,475)

Toronto

 $     (83,441,996)

 $      21,752,784

 $     (74,147,808)

Utah

 $     (18,069,245)

 $      38,918,184

 $      32,701,579

Washington

 $     (64,004,181)

 $       (8,443,231)

 $     (65,474,175)

Sorted by Starting Cap Space

Team

Starting
 Cap Space

Phoenix

 $              (510,710)

Sacramento

 $           (7,279,828)

Atlanta

 $          (10,055,673)

LA Lakers

 $          (12,199,608)

Chicago

 $          (16,720,691)

Utah

 $          (18,069,245)

New York

 $          (23,676,041)

New Orleans

 $          (25,793,117)

San Antonio

 $          (26,970,475)

Philadelphia

 $          (28,905,694)

Indiana

 $          (30,628,508)

Orlando

 $          (33,157,782)

LA Clippers

 $          (35,261,330)

Dallas

 $          (35,430,584)

Portland

 $          (35,652,284)

Denver

 $          (36,361,661)

Milwaukee

 $          (36,438,565)

Detroit

 $          (40,037,376)

Cleveland

 $          (41,019,999)

Memphis

 $          (41,258,309)

Brooklyn

 $          (46,451,139)

Houston

 $          (49,560,318)

Minnesota

 $          (57,839,642)

Charlotte

 $          (58,092,696)

Oklahoma City

 $          (58,526,182)

Boston

 $          (60,086,891)

Washington

 $          (64,004,181)

Golden State

 $          (65,547,142)

Miami

 $          (69,133,436)

Toronto

 $          (83,441,996)

Sorted by Maximum Cap Space

Team

Maximum
 Cap Space

Dallas

 $          86,653,300

Brooklyn

 $          71,256,604

Atlanta

 $          69,171,760

Sacramento

 $          59,914,786

LA Clippers

 $          56,583,695

New York

 $          54,582,925

Charlotte

 $          53,482,115

Chicago

 $          51,606,941

Philadelphia

 $          51,500,922

Indiana

 $          45,694,748

Milwaukee

 $          41,572,331

Utah

 $          38,918,184

Boston

 $          38,850,344

LA Lakers

 $          38,703,415

Miami

 $          36,179,024

Orlando

 $          29,426,349

Phoenix

 $          27,193,476

Memphis

 $          26,857,205

New Orleans

 $          26,823,755

Toronto

 $          21,752,784

Golden State

 $          20,532,884

Denver

 $          17,880,106

Minnesota

 $          14,114,290

San Antonio

 $           7,311,109

Cleveland

 $          (1,252,006)

Detroit

 $          (3,019,616)

Washington

 $          (8,443,231)

Portland

 $         (18,488,781)

Houston

 $         (29,026,094)

Oklahoma City

 $         (32,422,152)

Sorted by Projected Cap Space

Team

Projected
 Cap Space

LA Clippers

 $        53,939,871

Dallas

 $        51,319,102

Brooklyn

 $        48,936,398

Sacramento

 $        45,999,957

Indiana

 $        44,209,666

Chicago

 $        39,510,938

Atlanta

 $        37,513,772

LA Lakers

 $        36,908,013

Utah

 $        32,701,579

New York

 $        29,556,457

New Orleans

 $        23,652,023

Phoenix

 $        21,943,308

Milwaukee

 $        21,520,362

Philadelphia

 $        20,431,049

Orlando

 $           (863,551)

Memphis

 $       (30,675,471)

San Antonio

 $       (32,946,475)

Denver

 $       (36,361,661)

Cleveland

 $       (37,948,999)

Portland

 $       (38,237,084)

Charlotte

 $       (40,091,896)

Houston

 $       (41,724,618)

Detroit

 $       (42,393,966)

Miami

 $       (50,207,826)

Oklahoma City

 $       (53,012,877)

Minnesota

 $       (55,975,442)

Washington

 $       (65,474,175)

Golden State

 $       (67,499,662)

Boston

 $       (69,117,100)

Toronto

 $       (74,147,808)