Today I present my bracket picks, but before I get to those, let's talk about a few final stats.

(1) Valparaiso has not played a single NCAA tournament team. And Northeastern and Manhattan did not play a single tournament team seeded 11 or higher the entire season.

(2) I'm worried about VCU's defense, not offense. As noted in my previous column, CBS' graphics seemed to suggest that VCU's scoring fell off without Briante Weber. But my check of the numbers suggests that was a little misleading. VCU's games have had about 2.6 less possessions since Weber went down, and while the team's eFG% is worse, the team has gone to the line more often late in the year. On the whole VCU's offense has performed at a similar level. The real drop-off for VCU has come on the defensive end where steals, turnovers, and (most likely) tipped balls have all decreased since Weber went down.

VCU was a Top 20 team for the first part of the year, but only played like a bubble team in the final 14 games, even with the A10 tournament run.

(3) North Carolina is hot despite a 6-4 record in their last 10, Louisville and Maryland aren't playing at a level where you can expect a deep run, and Virginia is trending in the wrong direction.

Teams that are hot at the end of the year are not necessarily more likely to advance in the NCAA tournament. But for those of us that watch a lot of games, it is hard not to put more weight on what has happened recently. Unfortunately, a team's record in the last 10 games doesn't necessarily illustrate how well a team is playing. One needs to account for venue and schedule strength. In the tables below, I recreate Ken Pomeroy's formula focusing only on the last 10 games. Since the sample is more limited, I chose not to cap margin of victory and I ranked teams based on a 10.25 exponent, Pomeroy's old methodology.

Arizona has absolutely been on fire lately. They won at Utah, swept the Pac-12 tournament, and convincingly defeated Oregon in the Pac-12 final. North Carolina may only be 6-4 in their last 10, but they've played a very tough schedule, and their per possession numbers are much better than their record would indicate. The Tar Heels are peaking. Virginia on the other hand, has been playing like the 7th best team in the nation over the last several weeks. In mid-February, Virginia was 2nd in most of the margin-of-victory rankings, but everything has trended in the wrong direction with Justin Anderson out or limited. When Utah wins, they absolutely crush teams. Finally, I don't think enough people are talking about how well Iowa has played down the stretch. On Feb 5th they were 47th in the Pomeroy rankings. And even with the loss to Penn St. in the Big Ten tournament, the Hawkeyes have raised their season-long margin-of-victory to 24th.

Kansas has faded a bit down the stretch. Bill Self's teams are dangerous to pick against, but they won the Big 12 title in the early half of the season, not in the finishing stretch. UCLA didn't deserve to be in the tournament based on their resume, but the eye test folks are correct; the Bruins have been playing better.

Maryland and Louisville may be 4 seeds, but they have played like the 39th and 40th best teams in the nation over the last month. Yes, they have both had a few moments of success. Maryland beat Wisconsin. Louisville beat Virginia. But most games have not gone that well. The Terrapins struggled to beat Penn St. and Nebraska (twice) in this stretch of games and Louisville is obviously struggling offensively without Chris Jones.

These teams haven't been playing dominant enough basketball in their leagues to think they would win, but it is always possible. As noted in my previous column, Wyoming is much better than what these numbers show, as this stretch of games includes a lot of games when Larry Nance Jr. was not 100%.

My Bracket Picks

National Champion: #1 Kentucky

The platoon system might show up in the first round, but Kentucky has settled on a tight eight man rotation (sorry Marcus Lee), where everyone knows their role and plays it to perfection. Given the choice between Kentucky and the field, I still pick Kentucky.

Runner-up: #3 Iowa St.

Iowa St. is not a great defensive team, but their biggest strengths, rebounding and interior defense, are the most important skills. Teams made a ridiculous 73.2% of their foul shots against Iowa St. this year, and as I showed yesterday, with normal luck in that area Iowa St.'s defense would have been good enough for the Cyclones to have a Top 10 margin-of-victory overall.

Iowa St.'s team this year reminds me of the Michigan teams that have had deep tournament runs under John Beilein in recent seasons. Iowa St. doesn't turn the ball over. They are impossible to guard because of their player's ability to drive, shoot, and rebound. They rarely foul. They also have a very tight rotation of super-efficient players that all know their roles.

Last year, the lack of size in the paint was a problem against some opponents. This year, with Jameel McKay in the middle, I think they are versatile enough to match up against Gonzaga, Duke and/or Utah's big men.

The other team I would consider for the runner-up spot is Duke. But Duke also has defensive issues. And as I discussed on Saturday, Jahlil Okafor's free throw issues are a problem given that he will be on the court late in the game. Duke isn't going to win five tournament games via blowout. Eventually a game is going to be close, and I feel like the Blue Devils' inability to get stops and knock down free throws will cost them. I actually think Duke could give Kentucky a great game because of their outside shooting, but I am not particularly confident they can get to the national title game.

Final Four: #1 Wisconsin, #1 Villanova

As the tables at the start showed, Villanova is one of the hottest teams in the country. I think people have been vastly under-rating Villanova because they don't have any future NBA stars. But they have been extremely consistent and extremely dominant. If Virginia's Justin Anderson was 100%, I would consider the Cavaliers for this spot. But I can't pick them based on the way they have played recently.

The choice between Arizona and Wisconsin is the hardest to make. I had Arizona penciled into the Final Four for the longest time, particularly given how hot they have been and given that the game will be played in Los Angeles. And on paper, Arizona has the defensive strength to shut Wisconsin down. Few teams have players with the size and quickness to match-up with Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, and Nigel Hayes, but Arizona has a plethora of long, quick defenders.

But I kept flashing back to last year's NCAA tournament game between these two teams, and I kept asking myself, "Who guards Frank Kaminsky?" Arizona threw a ton of players at him last year and didn't have an answer. I'd like to see Rondae Hollis-Jefferson try this time, but I'm not sure he has the size to do it.

Or to put it another way, who does Kaleb Tarczewski guard? I don't think he can guard Dekker or Hayes effectively. Arizona matches up better against teams with a true center (like Utah), not teams with perimeter-oriented big men. I am very reluctantly picking against Arizona here.

If Wisconsin makes it to the Final Four, I think they will give Kentucky their only competitive game of the tournament. I think the Badgers outside shooting, slow pace, and precision basketball will lead to a tight game.

Midwest

Regional Final: #1 Kentucky over #11 Texas

Sweet Sixteen: #1 Kentucky, #5 West Virginia, #11 Texas, #7 Wichita St.

First Round Winners: #9 Purdue, #13 Valparaiso, #3 Notre Dame, #2 Kansas

This is the region where I expect the most upsets. Other than margin-of-victory, one thing that still has predictive power this time of year is the preseason ratings. Teams that were ranked high in the preseason rankings, but under-achieved, often make surprise tournament runs as lower digit seeds. Texas fits that profile to a tee. I'm also very high on the Big 12 this year. This was the best conference all season, and I don't think you will see a repeat of last year's subpar tournament performance for the league.

Believe it or not, the team that I actually think has the best chance to beat Texas is the first round opponent Butler. Chris Holtmann is a brilliant coach, and I think he'll prepare a great scouting report on Texas. And if you scout Texas well, they have flaws that can be exposed. But Butler has overachieved this season, and those are the type of teams that normally get upset.

Notre Dame did have an impressive run in the ACC tournament, but prior to that the Irish weren't playing particularly great to close the season. On some level, Notre Dame and Iowa St. have very similar profiles. They are both great offensive teams with subpar defense that need to outscore you to win. But Notre Dame doesn't rebound or defend the paint as well as Iowa St. And Mike Brey doesn't have a great NCAA tournament track record.

Wichita St. has been trying to get a non-conference game with Kansas. And beating them in the NCAA tournament seems like too perfect a storyline to actually happen. But the numbers all suggest it is more than possible. I don't like Wichita St. against Texas, simply because I don't think they have enough quality post players.

The hardest area for me to pick in the Midwest is the Columbus regional. As noted in the "hot teams" tables above, I don't like how either Maryland or West Virginia played at the end of the season, and Buffalo and Valparaiso are the two mid-majors that I think have the best shot to pull an upset. But other than margin-of-victory, the one stat that tends to lead to deep tournament runs is turnovers forced. And West Virginia has been brilliant at forcing turnovers and grabbing rebounds.

This really is one instance where I want to hear what happens in practice this week with West Virginia's injured guard Juwan Staten. Bob Huggins said yesterday that Staten was back, but sometimes that is just cheap-talk to throw off an opponent. If Staten still can't go, I might even switch my pick to Buffalo for the Sweet Sixteen at the last minute. But based on Huggins' confidence in Staten's availability, I'll pick the Mountaineers.

I like Cincinnati, but I'd rather see Purdue's two big centers against Kentucky, so that is a little bit more of a hope pick than a logic pick.

West

Regional Final: #1 Wisconsin over #2 Arizona

Sweet Sixteen: #1 Wisconsin, #4 North Carolina, #6 Xavier, #2 Arizona

First Round Winners: #8 Oregon, #5 Arkansas, #3 Baylor, #10 Ohio St.

I hope we get to see an Arkansas vs North Carolina track meet in the second round. Those teams really need to start scheduling a non-conference game against one another. I thought about picking North Carolina to upset Wisconsin for about 30 seconds, and then I decided against it. As well as North Carolina is playing, I don't see them playing precision basketball for 40 minutes, and they'd need to play precision basketball to beat Wisconsin.

I think the 6'7.5" shot-blocking monster Jordan Bell makes a name for himself in the tournament and seals the win for Oregon in the first round.

Baylor's margin-of-victory numbers are great, but this is a team that has significantly over-achieved this year. Those are the type of teams that tend to get upset. Baylor's zone defense is unusually good this year, so picking against Scott Drew's team seems like a mistake. But I think Matt Stainbrook and Jalen Reynolds could neutralize Rico Gathers on the boards. And Xavier head coach Chris Mack has already made the Sweet Sixteen twice in just four tournament appearances. I think he is an under-rated coach.

I've gone back and forth on the VCU/Ohio St. matchup a number of times. I think Ohio St. should be the favorite here. As I showed in the first table, VCU didn't play great to end the year and Ohio St. has solid margin-of-victory numbers. What I'm worried about is Ohio St.'s guard depth. If D'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott get worn down by the pressure defense or one of those players gets in foul trouble, Ohio St. could be in trouble.

East

Regional Final: #1 Villanova over #3 Oklahoma

Sweet Sixteen: #1 Villanova, #5 Northern Iowa, #3 Oklahoma, #2 Virginia

First Round Winners: #8 NC State, #4 Louisville, #6 Providence, #7 Michigan St.

NC State has plenty of big bodies to throw at LSU's frontline, and I like NC State's guard more than LSU"s guards. While I fear the slugfest with Wyoming in the first round, I think Northern Iowa has the horses to win the close games this year.

I think that UC Irvine's margin-of-victory numbers are under-rated because the 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye didn't play until late in the season. And I showed above that Louisville is slumping. But I also have more respect for Rick Pitino than just about any coach, and he has a few 7 footers to run at Ndiaye and make him uncomfortable. I'm predicting a Terry Rozier last minute three pointer to seal the first round victory. But in the second round, I think Louisville's inability to score will do them in.

I'm shocked at how little love Oklahoma is getting given their resume and power numbers. They rely pretty heavily on their top 5 players, and it is possible they'll run out of gas. But with all the long timeouts in the NCAA tournament, I think they will actually be peaking in March, not fading.

I'm worried I'm picking Virginia to bow out too early, but every game they play scares me. Belmont's Rick Byrd is a great coach whose team won't panic in a low-scoring game. Michigan St. is highly under-rated. Oklahoma is great.

South

Regional Final: #3 Iowa St. over #1 Duke

Sweet Sixteen: #1 Duke, #5 Utah, #3 Iowa St., #2 Gonzaga

First Round Winners: #8 San Diego St., #13 Eastern Washington, #6 SMU, #7 Iowa

I think how fans pick this region will determine whether they win their bracket pool. There are a lot of defensible picks throughout this region. Duke, Gonzaga, Iowa St., and Utah all have similar margin-of-victory numbers. As I said at the start, Iowa is much hotter than people realize. SMU has great front-court depth and is no pushover. San Diego St. plays great defense and can upset anyone because of it.

St. John's is not a great pick without Chris Obekpa. I'd pick Stephen F. Austin to upset just about anyone, but not against Utah in Portland. And while I think the Georgetown upset is not quite as likely as people are making it out to be, given that the game is in Portland, I think the Utah and Eastern Washington fans will push Eastern Washington to the win. And if you think I'm just throwing that in as a cheap excuse to pick an upset, home court advantage has been shown to impact the referees whistles. And Georgetown's Joshua Smith's play is very dependent on the discretion of the officials.

UCLA might be playing the "no one believes in us" card, but statistically, I'm pretty sure that isn't a real thing. And Davidson is impossible to pick for or against. Davidson beat VCU by 27 and lost by 20 in the span of two weeks. They aren't a bad pick, but as I said in my last column, I think their margin-of-victory numbers are not as good as they look.