Today, I explore how conference realignment and this summer’s coaching changes may impact the pace-of-play in the major conferences.
When it comes to pace-of-play, a team’s head coach is critical. Thus I list each coach’s mean pace in the below tables over the last 11 years. This summer Ken Pomeroy also developed two new metrics measuring Average Possession Length (APL) on offense and defense. These metrics allow us to understand what causes a team to have a faster or a slower tempo. For example if a team has a slower than expected tempo, we can see whether this is because the team shoots later in the shot clock (like Wisconsin) or because the team presents a frustrating defense to score against (like Syracuse). In the following tables I present the mean APL values for each coach for the four seasons for which Ken Pomeroy has calculated these new metrics.
Big Ten |
Current Team |
Mean Pace |
Mean APL Off |
Mean APL Def |
Fran McCaffery |
Iowa |
69.3 |
16.5 |
18.8 |
Richard Pitino |
Minnesota |
68.9 |
16.4 |
17.9 |
John Groce |
Illinois |
67.3 |
17.1 |
18.4 |
Tom Crean |
Indiana |
67.2 |
17.1 |
18.6 |
Matt Painter |
Purdue |
67.1 |
17.8 |
18.6 |
Pat Chambers |
Penn St. |
66.3 |
18.0 |
18.7 |
Tim Miles |
Nebraska |
66.2 |
18.8 |
18.0 |
Thad Matta |
Ohio St. |
66.1 |
17.2 |
19.5 |
Tom Izzo |
Michigan St. |
65.4 |
17.4 |
19.3 |
John Beilein |
Michigan |
64.0 |
19.2 |
19.2 |
Bo Ryan |
Wisconsin |
61.9 |
22.0 |
18.3 |
Chris Collins |
Northwestern |
|
|
|
|
Average |
66.3 |
|
|
In the Big Ten, there is once again optimism that the pace is getting faster. Tubby Smith’s career pace was only 66.3, and it was much lower in recent seasons. Richard Pitino should play faster than that based on what he did at Florida International and what he has announced publicly. There is some concern whether the younger Pitino will accomplish that goal by allowing too many easy baskets (see the low Average Possession Length on Defense), but for the rest of the teams in the Big Ten, a few easy baskets would be a blessing.
Meanwhile, Chris Collins will almost certainly use a faster tempo than Bill Carmody at Northwestern. Carmody’s career pace was tied with Bo Ryan for slowest in the league, and after having spent a career on the sidelines at Duke, Collins will almost certainly prefer a more up-tempo attack. He may not quite want to run as much at first given Northwestern’s weaknesses in personnel, but in the long-run, only Bo Ryan and John Beilein stand out as truly grinding coaches.
ACC |
Current Team |
Mean Pace |
Mean APL Off |
Mean APL Def |
Roy Williams |
North Carolina |
72.6 |
15.1 |
18.0 |
Mike Krzyzewski |
Duke |
69.0 |
17.4 |
17.6 |
Jim Boeheim |
Syracuse |
68.7 |
15.9 |
19.8 |
Leonard Hamilton |
Florida St. |
67.3 |
16.7 |
18.6 |
Mark Gottfried |
NC State |
66.8 |
16.7 |
18.6 |
James Johnson |
Virginia Tech |
66.6 |
17.3 |
17.9 |
Mike Brey |
Notre Dame |
66.1 |
19.7 |
18.2 |
Steve Donahue |
Boston College |
65.7 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
Mark Turgeon |
Maryland |
65.5 |
18.1 |
18.2 |
Brian Gregory |
Georgia Tech |
64.9 |
17.5 |
18.9 |
Jim Larranaga |
Miami FL |
64.8 |
18.8 |
18.0 |
Jeff Bzdelik |
Wake Forest |
64.4 |
17.3 |
17.5 |
Jamie Dixon |
Pittsburgh |
63.7 |
19.3 |
19.1 |
Brad Brownell |
Clemson |
63.6 |
18.4 |
19.3 |
Tony Bennett |
Virginia |
60.6 |
19.8 |
18.7 |
|
Average |
66.0 |
|
|
The ACC doesn’t add any new coaches, but that may not be a blessing for ACC fans. Many of the recent additions like Brad Brownell and Brian Gregory continue to be among the slower-paced coaches in the conference. And without any fast-paced coaches joining the league to contradict that, there will remain plenty of ugly ACC games in the future.
The three teams that were added via realignment this year barely change expectations. Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh run the gambit from fast to slow, and together the three have almost no impact on the league average.
There were quite a few games in the 50’s in the ACC last year, and that trend will continue this season. Certainly the matchups between Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse will continue to be some of the faster, more entertaining games in the nation. But for a league that once prided itself on playing faster-paced games from top to bottom, the ACC continues to look more and more like the Big Ten.
Pac-12 |
Current Team |
Mean Pace |
Mean APL Off |
Mean APL Def |
Lorenzo Romar |
Washington |
71.6 |
15.9 |
18.1 |
Andy Enfield |
USC |
68.3 |
16.4 |
18.5 |
Tad Boyle |
Colorado |
67.5 |
17.3 |
18.4 |
Johnny Dawkins |
Stanford |
67.5 |
17.7 |
17.8 |
M. Montgomery |
California |
67.3 |
17.2 |
18.4 |
Steve Alford |
UCLA |
67.2 |
17.7 |
18.4 |
Dana Altman |
Oregon |
66.7 |
17.3 |
18.0 |
Ken Bone |
Wash. St. |
66.7 |
18.2 |
18.4 |
Sean Miller |
Arizona |
66.4 |
17.6 |
18.2 |
Craig Robinson |
Oregon St. |
65.3 |
17.7 |
17.4 |
L. Krystkowiak |
Utah |
65.2 |
20.3 |
17.6 |
Herb Sendek |
Arizona St. |
63.5 |
18.4 |
18.8 |
|
Average |
66.9 |
|
|
The Pac-12 became the fastest-paced power conference in the country last year, and I would expect that trend to continue. After all, Herb Sendek has miraculously determined that as long as he has Jahii Carson on the team, he can live with more than 65 possessions per game. Even Dana Altman has sped up in the Pac-12 relative to his career average. Altman’s average pace in four years at Oregon is now 67.8.
Andy Enfield should clearly bring a faster pace to USC. Compared to Kevin O’Neill and his 63.3 possessions per game, Enfield will clearly bring a more up-tempo style. But even relative to interim head coach Bob Cantu and his 67.5 possessions per game, Enfield should be faster. Enfield averaged 68.3 possessions per game at Florida Gulf Coast.
The biggest concern is how fast Steve Alford will play at UCLA. While his career pace (67.2) is faster than that of Ben Howland (66.2), it isn’t faster than what Howland unleashed last season when Howland’s team was unexpectedly running-and-gunning at 69.5 possessions per game.
Big 12 |
Current Team |
Mean Pace |
Mean APL Off |
Mean APL Def |
Travis Ford |
Oklahoma St. |
69.2 |
17.5 |
18.2 |
Fred Hoiberg |
Iowa St. |
69.0 |
16.2 |
18.2 |
Bill Self |
Kansas |
68.7 |
16.3 |
18.5 |
Rick Barnes |
Texas |
67.4 |
17.3 |
17.6 |
Lon Kruger |
Oklahoma |
67.1 |
17.2 |
18.4 |
Scott Drew |
Baylor |
66.9 |
17.4 |
18.2 |
Trent Johnson |
TCU |
66.4 |
19.2 |
17.8 |
Tubby Smith |
Texas Tech |
66.3 |
18.5 |
18.6 |
Bob Huggins |
West Virginia |
65.8 |
19.4 |
17.6 |
Bruce Weber |
Kansas St. |
65.0 |
18.5 |
18.2 |
|
Average |
67.2 |
|
|
New Texas Tech head coach Tubby Smith (66.3) checks in with a slower pace than interim head coach Chris Walker (67.6). But the real question is whether last year was an anomaly or a trend for some coaches. Trent Johnson, Bruce Weber and Bob Huggins all played with substantially slower paces than their historical averages last year. If they move back up to their norm, the Big 12 can challenge the Pac-12 for the fastest league in the nation.
SEC |
Current Team |
Mean Pace |
Mean APL Off |
Mean APL Def |
Mike Anderson |
Arkansas |
71.8 |
15.5 |
18.1 |
Johnny Jones |
LSU |
70.2 |
17.4 |
17.4 |
Tony Barbee |
Auburn |
69.3 |
17.6 |
18.2 |
Andy Kennedy |
Mississippi |
68.8 |
16.8 |
18.1 |
Frank Martin |
S. Carolina |
68.6 |
18.2 |
16.8 |
John Calipari |
Kentucky |
68.3 |
17.4 |
18.1 |
Rick Ray |
Mississippi St. |
68.2 |
18.4 |
17.5 |
Kevin Stallings |
Vanderbilt |
66.8 |
17.3 |
19.0 |
Billy Donovan |
Florida |
66.0 |
18.0 |
19.0 |
Mark Fox |
Georgia |
65.8 |
19.3 |
18.2 |
Frank Haith |
Missouri |
65.7 |
17.6 |
18.2 |
Anthony Grant |
Alabama |
64.7 |
19.3 |
18.1 |
Billy Kennedy |
Texas A&M |
64.7 |
19.0 |
18.4 |
Cuonzo Martin |
Tennessee |
64.4 |
18.9 |
18.5 |
|
Average |
67.4 |
|
|
Amazingly there are no new coaches or teams in the SEC this year. The SEC should also be challenging for the title of the fastest league, but last year a number of teams (including Kentucky) had unusual personnel issues and played much slower than normal.
Finally, here is how the Big East looks after the split, and what to expect in the new-look MWC:
The American |
Current Team |
Mean Pace |
Mean APL Off |
Mean APL Def |
Josh Pastner |
Memphis |
68.3 |
16.7 |
18.4 |
James Dickey |
Houston |
68.2 |
17.2 |
18.0 |
Rick Pitino |
Louisville |
67.8 |
16.6 |
18.9 |
Fran Dunphy |
Temple |
66.0 |
18.6 |
18.0 |
Donnie Jones |
UCF |
66.0 |
17.9 |
18.2 |
Kevin Ollie |
Connecticut |
65.5 |
17.8 |
19.0 |
Mick Cronin |
Cincinnati |
65.3 |
18.7 |
18.2 |
Stan Heath |
South Florida |
64.6 |
20.3 |
18.2 |
Larry Brown |
SMU |
63.8 |
18.8 |
18.5 |
Eddie Jordan |
Rutgers |
|
|
|
|
Average |
66.2 |
|
|
Big East |
Current Team |
|
|
|
Oliver Purnell |
DePaul |
69.3 |
17.2 |
16.8 |
Steve Lavin |
St. John's |
69.0 |
17.6 |
18.1 |
Jay Wright |
Villanova |
68.3 |
17.2 |
18.0 |
Buzz Williams |
Marquette |
66.9 |
17.6 |
18.4 |
Chris Mack |
Xavier |
66.7 |
17.7 |
18.4 |
Kevin Willard |
Seton Hall |
66.4 |
17.7 |
18.2 |
Greg McDermott |
Creighton |
65.5 |
18.0 |
18.1 |
Ed Cooley |
Providence |
64.8 |
18.4 |
17.8 |
John Thompson |
Georgetown |
62.0 |
18.2 |
19.1 |
Brandon Miller |
Butler |
|
|
|
|
Average |
66.5 |
|
|
MWC |
Current Team |
|
|
|
Dave Rice |
UNLV |
69.4 |
15.5 |
19.1 |
David Carter |
Nevada |
67.6 |
17.5 |
17.9 |
Steve Fisher |
San Diego St. |
66.6 |
18.0 |
18.8 |
Leon Rice |
Boise St. |
66.5 |
17.9 |
18.0 |
Larry Eustachy |
Colorado St. |
64.7 |
19.8 |
17.4 |
Dave Pilipovich |
Air Force |
64.2 |
17.5 |
19.7 |
Stew Morrill |
Utah St. |
62.6 |
19.4 |
18.6 |
Larry Shyatt |
Wyoming |
62.6 |
21.8 |
17.5 |
Rodney Terry |
Fresno St. |
62.3 |
19.8 |
18.5 |
Dave Wojcik |
San Jose St. |
|
|
|
Craig Neal |
New Mexico |
|
|
|
|
Average |
65.2 |
|
|