The Indiana Pacers were right at .500 (11-11) entering Monday night’s game against the Chicago Bulls, a game they would lose by 19 points. It’s been three years since they had as many wins as losses this deep into a season, but which side of .500 do they truly belong?

Back in the 07-08 season, they opened the season 15-15, but went just 21-31 the rest of the way and it was blatantly obvious that they had overachieved early on.

This season appears to be different with a host of signature wins already in the books. They’ve beaten a series of contenders -- the Nuggets, Heat and Lakers – and they have a very respectable 5-6 record away from Conseco Fieldhouse.

Their first 22 opponents have a combined winning percentage of just .487 (21st in the league), so you could make the argument that if they are a winning team they should be a few ticks above .500 at this point.

The Presence of Defense

It’s not that the Pacers have lacked a defensive philosophy in recent years; it’s just that it’s often resembled a very thin slice of Swiss cheese. They have allowed 102.6 points per 100 possessions this season, their best mark since they last made the postseason (05-06).

That is good enough for ninth in the NBA.

More impressively, the Pacers also have the second-best field goal percentage defense allowed.

Thanks in large part to emerging center Roy Hibbert, the Pacers lead the league in blocks per game (6.8). It’s great to have an intimidating presence in the paint, but I often find the statistic to be a misleading one. The Celtics and Spurs are arguably the two most consistent defensive clubs in the league, but they rank in the middle of the pack in blocks.

Plain and simple, if opponents aren’t getting by the first line of defense so easily, Indiana’s big men wouldn’t have to reject shots to save their shorter teammates.

Rebounding Without Murphy

The Pacers traded away their best 09-10 rebounder in Troy Murphy as part of the multi-team deal that brought Darren Collison and James Posey to Indiana and they now rank 19th in rebounding differential. But the Pacers were ranked 29th in rebounding differential at the end of the 09-10 season, so they have shown a marked improvement in this area of the game.

Hibbert leads the team with 8.7 rebounds per game, while three other teammates average more than five boards (Josh McRoberts, Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger). Jeff Foster, easily their toughest cover off the glass, has only appeared in four games and his per-minute rebounding rate is as strong as ever.

Indiana is ranked 27th in offensive rebound percentage and a slightly more tolerable 18th in defensive rebound percentage, which happens to be just above the NBA average at 73.7%.

The Pacers still clearly need to improve in this area of the game, but an improvement has been demonstrated.

An Overrated Offense?

Since the Pacers began their total rebuild three years ago, their biggest bright spot has been their offense. Perhaps in an effort to shore up their play on the other side of the ball, they’ve seen their scoring numbers decline this season.

They score 105 points per 100 possessions, putting them 19th in the NBA. Their offensive rating is actually higher than it was last season, but it’s considerably lower than it was in the two years prior to that.

The Pacers rank 11th in eFG%, just behind the Lakers and ahead of the Rockets.

They aren’t a very good free throw shooting team, but they only average .209 tries per field goal attempt. Only the Golden State Warriors (.168) have a lower percentage and winning close games and ones deep into the spring will be almost impossible without not only an improved stroke, but also a higher rate of trips.

Improved Depth

The Pacers haven’t always been a deep team in their post-contending years, but that has changed this season. Jim O’Brien essentially trusts a nine-man rotation with the same number of players averaging more than 15 minutes per game.

Granger is averaging a career-high 36.9 minutes per game, but his scoring numbers are down with the emergence of guys like Hibbert and Brandon Rush. Since scoring a career high 25.7 points per 36 minutes in 08-09 when he became an All-Star, Granger has seen that number drop to 23.7 last season and 20.6 this season. His eFG% and usage have both dropped from that peak 08-09 season.

A lot of teams would still love to have a guy like Foster and the Pacers have him behind Solomon Jones on their depth chart.

Josh McRoberts has looked strong to begin the season, although he’s still a defensive liability. His PER stands at 14.89, making him an average NBA player, which isn’t bad for a guy making less than $1,000,000 and playing a tad more than 20 minutes per game.

I’d like to see more of first-round pick Paul George, but it’s hard to give him minutes with a host of talented wing players. Granger is rightfully going to get his time and both Rush and Dunleavy are playing some of their best basketball under the radar. It’s too bad Indiana couldn’t mesh the two together. For the most part, I’d prefer Dunleavy offensively and Rush is a superior defender.

The Big Man

Granger is clearly Indiana’s best player and leader, but Hibbert is getting the most attention nationally this season. He worked extremely hard this offseason, learning from Hall of Famer Bill Walton and is now properly managing his exercise-induced asthma, which has improved his conditioning and stamina.

He’s averaging career-highs across the board, including an impressive PER of 19.77. He needs to improve on the offensive glass, especially when it comes to using his height on easy tip-ins, but his improvement has been amazing.

The one alarming thing about Hibbert is how his numbers have declined as the season has progressed. He averaged 15.6 points, 9.4 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in November, but he’s posting just 11.3 points, 6.5 boards and 1.5 rejections in December.

His minutes and fouls are level across the two months, but his field goal attempts are way down.

The Verdict

The Pacers are very clearly headed in the right direction with a borderline All-Star in Granger, a developing and above-average center in Hibbert, a good young point guard in Collison and a host of talented complementary wing players.

There will be playoff basketball in Indiana very soon, but it remains to be seen if a winning record and meaningful April games will be played by the Pacers this season. Their shooting percentage from inside the three-point arc, rebounding differential and the decreased usage of Hibbert won’t bode well as the season progresses.

They may not finish above .500, but they could very well still end their lengthy playoff drought thanks to their presence in the top-heavy, bottom-bad Eastern Conference.


Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.