Successfully defending Blake Griffin is a simple task conceptually.
Load up the paint to restrict his air space, keep a body on him on the pick and roll, force him into settling for jumpers and make him catch the ball in the post as far from the bucket as possible.
Griffin's best months of the season were easily in December and the first 10 games of January until Eric Gordon’s injury.
His overall efficiency in February has decreased from his seasonal marks, as teams have learned to adjust and game-plan more effectively for Griffin, causing his scoring percentages to dip and teams also have been doing a better job in reducing his rebound and assist rates.
Griffin is seeing consistent double and even triple teams, partly a result of his inescapable prominence, but more also as a direct result of Gordon’s absence. Griffin’s supporting cast without Gordon is far too mediocre offensively for opposing teams to respect well enough not to give him their complete attention.
Griffin has shot progressively worse from the floor in each progressive month of the season:
November: 54.0%
December: 52.8%
January: 50.6%
February: 47.1%
Not coincidentally, Griffin is shooting about 33% more long-range jumpers per game in February. Griffin is still getting the same volume of opportunities to get to the rim, but he’s not being allowed those closer non-dunk looks where he is more comfortable at this stage in his development than his outside jumper.
When Griffin gets chances at the rim, they are happening more on broken plays in the halfcourt where there is chaos for the defense than on designed sets.
In the Clippers’ Saturday night’s loss, the Celtics had little difficulty in preventing Griffin from being a dominant scorer. Beyond an incredible one-handed alley-oop in the first quarter and a breakaway second half jam, Griffin had to put in work for his buckets. He still managed to shoot 50% from the field (7-for-14), but he only had five attempts at the bucket and shot a solid (by Griffin-standards) 3-for-8 on his jumpers.
For quality defensive teams like the Celtics, they put a substantial part of their effort and focus into defending Griffin before he catches the ball.
Kevin Garnett and Glen Davis, for example, frequently pushed Griffin as close to the perimeter as possible ahead of the catch in the mid-post and then would back off him upon the catch. Griffin’s athleticism is negated by starting that far from the bucket and he is tempted into the jumper, or resetting the possession with less half the shotclock already wasted.
I asked Doc Rivers after the game if they were able to defend Griffin as they intended.
“He got a couple fastbreak buckets which we don’t like for anybody, I don’t care who it is,” Rivers said to RealGM. “Especially down the stretch, we made it very difficult to get the catch and made him catch it off the block, which is what we want to do. He made some jumpshots. He’s a terrific player and he’s just going to get better.”
The final stretch of Griffin’s rookie season will be more difficult from a scoring perspective as a result of the Clippers’ trade of Baron Davis. Even though Davis’ contract presented a liability in terms of re-signing DeAndre Jordan and/or having cap space for the 2012 free agent class, Davis created explosive scoring opportunities for Griffin that Mo Williams is incapable of and Eric Bledsoe doesn’t possess the maturity/consistency to duplicate.
The Clippers already struggle late in games because of the lack of halfcourt structure and X’s and O’s aptitude, so this is why we routinely see Griffin fly through the air early in the first half and then be unable to even receive the ball cleanly late in the second half.
One of the NBA’s most hallowed truths is that great scorers need to evolve, improve and fight through the first adjustments the league’s defenses collectively make against them. This is why we see young players go on promising scoring barrages and then quickly disappear into an unimpressive and lackluster career.
Griffin can get his 20 and 10 consistently with relative ease, but the type of volume necessary to score those points is a concern in the long-term. Griffin is no ordinary player obviously and the context of this entire debate (along with his need to improve defensively) is determining whether he is the perennial All-Star he already is, or a genuine top-five player in the entire NBA over the next decade.
While it is up to Neil Olshey to find his franchise player a high-end upgrade at either small forward or point guard, Griffin is going to keep getting pushed out further and further away from the bucket and that jumper he’s working hard on will need to improve dramatically.